マーケティング戦略メルマガ【週刊☆ビジマ】 : 生存確率

2005年02月13日

生存確率

こんにちは、下浦＠トレーディング研究家です。株式ブームに伴い、（私も含め）多くの初心者トレーダーが誕生していますが、実際、５年後まで生き残る確率はどの程度あるのでしょうか？　今回は生存確率について考えてみたいと思います。

▼ 経験の重要性

まずは前回の補足から。前回リスクとリターンを定量的に評価し、ポートフォリオの最適化を図るツールが出てくるだろうと書いたのですが、既にＭｅネット証券から提供されているようです。世の中の進歩は早い。既に使われた方ありましたらコメント頂ければ幸いです。

http://www.me-net.jp/visitor/mes/simulator.html

http://www.me-net.jp/visitor/mes/z.html

こういったツールを活用して根拠あるトレードを心掛ければ、初年度から利益をあげられるかも知れません。学生トレーダーなど投資金額が小さければ、負けても知れていますが、退職金など１０００万クラスを運用される中高年層は、初期損失に留意する必要があります。

結局トレーダーという仕事は経験がモノをいう世界であり、自分のスタイルが確立するまでは試行錯誤の連続である訳です。第一回で紹介した「エロエロ大王」でさえ最初の２年間はダメだったという事ですから、余程の天才でも無い限り、１，２年の下積み生活は覚悟すべきでしょう。

漁師に喩えるなら、どこに魚（資金）が集まりそうか？　とか、絶対近づいてはいけない岩礁（銘柄）とか、船を出してはいけない天候（相場）とか、チャートや相場に対するカンが働くようになるまで、その程度の時間が必要な訳です。巨大カジキ（仕手株）との格闘経験も必要かもしれません。

http://www.imagica.com/VW/LF/oldmansea/index.html

▼ トレード当りの許容損失

その間、ある程度は負けを承知で海（市場）に出て行く訳ですが、ゲームオーバーとならない事が重要です。もし１年目で３０％の損失を出せば、２年目で４３％のリターンをあげないと資金が回復しませんが、これは上位４０％のトレーダーに相当します。５０％の損失では、１００％のリターンが必要で、上位２５％のトレーダーに相当しますから、資金を５０％失えば、ほぼゲームオーバーと考えて良いでしょう。

http://saitama.no-ip.com/market/rank_per_y.html

初年度の目標は、「損失を３０％以下に抑えながら、上位４０％のトレーダーに成るべく努力する事」になります。年間１０００回のトレード（１日平均４回）で勝率５０％とすれば、２＾１０＝１０２４ですから、最悪、１０回連続で負ける可能性があります。最大許容損失を３０％とすれば、３０÷１０＝３となり、１トレード当たりの損失を資金の３％以下に抑える必要があります。

日経２２５を高レバレッジで運用する場合など、シビア（１％以下）に損切りする必要がありますし、周期的に上げる株など、必ず上がる銘柄を待ち伏せ買いする場合などは多少、損切りを甘くしても良い訳です。

▼ シャープレシオ

トレーダーの評価尺度として、増減率の他に、「シャープレシオ」という考え方があります。これは、収益の安定性を示す偏差値みたいなもので、年間の超過リターンを標準偏差（リスク）で割ったものです。シャープレシオが高ければ、レバレッジにより、いくらでも増減率は上げられる事になります。

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/atmoney/f_guide/fg031022.htm

http://nobelprize.org/economics/laureates/1990/index.html

シャープレシオ（ＳＲ）は生存確率に直結しており、トレード成績が正規分布すると仮定すると、ＳＲ＝１の場合は１６％、ＳＲ＝２の場合は２．３％、ＳＲ＝３の場合は０．１３％の確率で、年間収支がマイナスとなります。第４回で紹介したシステムトレードでは、ＳＲ＝２～３程度のシステムが多いようです。

http://aoki2.si.gunma-u.ac.jp/lecture/Bunpu/normdist/hyojunhensa.html

週間増減率のデータから、年間５０週トレードするとして、増減率を５０倍し、標準偏差を√５０＝７．１倍したもので割ればＳＲを計算できます。実際に日本のデイトレーダーを調べてみると、トップクラスではＳＲが１０を越えており、いかに彼らがシビアなトレードをしているか（確実に勝てる時しかエントリーしていないか）が理解できます。

http://saitama.no-ip.com/market/rank_assets.html

プロフィール
下浦　一宏（しもうら　かずひろ）

トレーディング研究家

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